According to Odaily, market sources indicate that the swap market is maintaining stability, with expectations of nearly 100 basis points in rate cuts by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. Following a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, traders have increased their bets on the likelihood of these rate cuts.
According to Odaily, market sources reveal that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has issued his strongest signal yet regarding a potential interest rate cut. Powell indicated that the Federal Reserve intends to take action to prevent further weakening of the U.S. labor market.
According to PANews, CME's 'FedWatch' tool indicates a 73.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. The likelihood of a 50 basis point cut stands at 26.5%. By November, the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 54.2%, while the chances of a 75 basis point cut are 38.9%. The probability of a 100 basis point cumulative rate cut by November is 7.0%.
According to BlockBeats, on August 23, sources from the European Central Bank (ECB) indicated that inflation developments in the Eurozone are in line with expectations. The region is experiencing weak economic growth, and wage pressures have eased. Currently, there is growing internal support for a potential interest rate cut in September, although this decision has not yet been finalized.
According to BlockBeats, a report by Matrixport on August 23 indicates that while financial markets appear calm, significant turning points may be imminent due to gold, oil, treasury bonds, and the dollar nearing critical support levels. This situation suggests that the macroeconomic landscape is on the brink of substantial changes, although the full impact may take several months to manifest.The sustainability of certain policy proposals from U.S. presidential candidates is in question, with financial markets simultaneously predicting the election winner and worrying about rapidly rising debt levels. Historical data shows that bull markets typically begin around 250 days before a halving event and last for approximately 250 days. When bond yields rise and gold prices rebound simultaneously, it usually indicates a unique and somewhat contradictory economic environment, with Bitcoin likely to emerge as a primary beneficiary asset.
According to BlockBeats, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting tonight at 14:00 (UTC+0). The market is anticipating that Powell will announce the commencement of an interest rate cut cycle in September, focusing on whether a 50 basis point cut remains an option. However, Powell may remain tight-lipped on this matter. Investors should be aware of potential market volatility during this period and consider related risks.Powell's remarks will be closely analyzed for any indications of his economic outlook, especially in light of weaker-than-expected employment reports and further easing of inflation. The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to implement a rate cut at its next meeting on September 17-18, though there is some disagreement on the extent of the cut. While most economists predict a 25 basis point reduction, some forecasting agencies, including Citigroup and JPMorgan, anticipate a 50 basis point cut. Wall Street is betting that Powell will confirm the rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting in Wyoming. The market debate has shifted from whether there will be a rate cut to how significant the cut will be.
According to Cointelegraph, a United States appeals court has upheld a California federal judge’s decision to dismiss a lawsuit filed by Hodl Law against the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The lawsuit aimed to compel the SEC to clarify its stance on whether Ether (ETH) is classified as a security.Hodl Law's complaint, filed in November 2022 in a San Diego district court, argued that the firm faced a potential risk of SEC enforcement action for using the Ethereum blockchain and its token, Ether. However, the Ninth Circuit appeals court panel ruled on August 22 that the complaint did not demonstrate a “realistic danger” of such enforcement action. The panel noted that there were no allegations indicating that the SEC had investigated, prosecuted, or threatened to investigate or prosecute the law firm’s use of Ether or Ethereum.The law firm had hoped the lawsuit would force the SEC to clarify its position on Ether, especially after the regulator launched several enforcement actions against crypto firms, implicating numerous cryptocurrencies under securities laws. The panel, however, supported the California court’s July 2023 dismissal of the case, stating that Hodl Law failed to provide evidence that the SEC had engaged in “final agency action” regarding the classification of Ether as a security.The panel further added that Hodl Law had not identified any authority requiring the SEC to engage in specific rulemaking or respond to private parties’ requests for guidance on Ether’s legal classification. Hodl Law’s senior managing partner, Fred Rispoli, expressed disappointment in an August 22 post, stating that the court’s decision was “disappointing but expected.” He emphasized that the firm merely wanted an opportunity to argue that Ether is not a federal security.The SEC has not yet determined whether Ether and assets on the Ethereum blockchain are securities, despite approving spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in July. The Ninth Circuit panel mentioned that it is possible the SEC “will never decide that Ether or Ethereum is a ‘security’ under the Securities Act.” Rispoli criticized the panel’s decision, arguing that it undermines the rule of law in the United States. He also indicated that the firm would explore other avenues to compel the SEC to provide a definitive answer on the matter, stating, “We are not giving up.”
According to BlockBeats, on August 23, Freddie Mac announced that the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has decreased to 6.46%, down from 6.49% the previous week. This decline follows a significant drop from earlier this year when borrowing costs surpassed 7%, enhancing homebuyers' purchasing power and encouraging some potential buyers to re-enter the market. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported on Thursday that U.S. existing home sales rose in July for the first time in five months. Although there was a 1.3% month-over-month increase in July, it remains the slowest July growth rate since 2010, indicating that high home prices and a shortage of affordable housing continue to deter many Americans. Buyers and sellers may also be waiting for further declines in financing costs before making decisions.Freddie Mac's Chief Economist Sam Khater noted, 'Earlier this month, rates dropped significantly and are now hovering just below 6.5%. However, this is not enough to motivate potential homebuyers. We anticipate that rates may need to decrease by another percentage point to stimulate buyer demand.'
According to BlockBeats, on August 23, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Kazaks expressed a very open attitude towards discussing a rate cut in September, suggesting that a gradual reduction would be the best approach.Kazaks indicated that even if inflation remains stable, a rate cut is still a possibility.
According to BlockBeats, on August 23, Federal Reserve's Collins indicated that the current timing appears suitable to begin easing monetary policy.