Investment Learning

  • September 18, 2024

Central Banks Expected to Announce Policy Decisions This Week

According to Odaily, Commerzbank analysts have indicated that following the European Central Bank's decision to lower the deposit rate by 25 basis points last week, several other central banks are set to announce their policy decisions this week. Most of these decisions are likely to maintain current interest rates, with one significant exception. If the Federal Reserve does not begin its rate-cutting cycle on Wednesday, it would be a major surprise.Analyst Volkmar Baur noted, 'At the start of this week, the market anticipated a slightly higher than 50% chance of a significant rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Our economists still expect a 25 basis point cut, which is well justified.' He added, 'However, a small initial step does not rule out larger moves in the future. This is why the current risk leans towards a weaker dollar.'

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  • September 18, 2024

Bank Of Japan Expected to Maintain Key Interest Rate This Week

According to Odaily, the market widely anticipates that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will keep its key overnight lending rate unchanged at 0.25% this week. However, the December meeting is expected to be more intriguing. Out of 36 economists surveyed by the Japan Center for Economic Research, 19 predict that the BOJ will raise rates again in December.Before the BOJ's meeting on December 18-19, the bank will monitor several key indicators to assess whether the economy is on track. These indicators include the BOJ's Tankan surveys for September and December, third-quarter GDP data, and corporate earnings for the same period.

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  • September 17, 2024

Gold Prices Rise Amid Weak Dollar And Fed Rate Cut Expectations

According to Odaily, gold prices saw a slight increase during the early Asian market session. Tickmill analyst Joseph Dahrieh noted that the rise is driven by a weakening dollar and growing expectations of significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Dahrieh highlighted that recent data from the U.S. job market indicates an economic slowdown, which raises the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut. Additionally, Dahrieh mentioned that the increasing political uncertainty ahead of the U.S. November elections is enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.

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  • September 17, 2024

Lawmakers Push For Crypto Legislation Before Year-End

According to CoinDesk, two prominent U.S. lawmakers, Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) and Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), are optimistic about passing crypto oversight legislation before the end of the year. This effort would require strategic maneuvering to attach crypto-related matters to essential legislation during the lame-duck session of Congress, which occurs after the elections but before the new members take office next year.Sen. Lummis expressed confidence at an event hosted by Georgetown University's Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy, stating, 'I really do think we're going to get something done in the lame duck.' She mentioned that an ongoing effort at the Senate Agricultural Committee could achieve bipartisan support and be amended in late-year negotiations to include other necessary details. Lummis warned that if comprehensive U.S. regulation is delayed into the next congressional session, it might be postponed until late 2025. 'We just can't wait anymore,' she emphasized, noting that Europe is ahead in this regard.Rep. McHenry, who chairs the House Financial Services Committee and is set to retire after this session, led a significant crypto legislative effort this year, successfully passing a comprehensive digital assets bill through the House of Representatives. This effort, supported by 71 House Democrats, demonstrated 'substantial momentum' for a crypto bill. McHenry suggested that the legislation might need to be linked to a spending package requiring congressional approval this year, though he acknowledged the possibility of failure. 'There are seeds that you plant that may not grow in your timeframe,' he remarked, adding that the crypto sector now has 'policy footprints that I've left in the sand' for future debates. 'Somebody else's name may be on it when it's signed into law,' he noted.Sen. Lummis also reiterated her proposal for the U.S. to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve with a four-year buying program, which she believes could yield trillions in value over 20 years of holding onto Bitcoin.

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  • September 17, 2024

U.S. Retail Sales Data Unlikely to Impact FOMC Policy Report

According to Odaily, institutional analysts believe that the recent U.S. retail sales data is unlikely to significantly influence this week's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy report. Earlier reports indicated that U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in August, suggesting that the U.S. economy maintained a solid foundation for most of the third quarter. The data showed a 0.1% month-on-month increase in August retail sales, following an upward revision to 1.1% for July.

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  • September 17, 2024

U.S. August Retail Sales Show Slight Increase

According to Odaily, the United States' retail sales for August recorded a monthly increase of 0.1%, surpassing the expected decline of 0.2%. The previous month's figure was revised from 1.00% to 1.1%. The retail sales control group for August also matched expectations at 0.3%, with the prior value adjusted from 0.30% to 0.4%. Additionally, core retail sales for August saw a monthly rise of 0.1%, which was below the anticipated 0.2%, and the previous month's figure was revised from 0.40% to 0.4%.

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  • September 17, 2024

Euro Credit Default Swaps Decline Ahead Of Anticipated Fed Rate Cut

According to BlockBeats, on September 17, the euro credit default swaps (CDS) experienced a decline as the market widely anticipates the Federal Reserve's first rate cut on Wednesday. Richard Flax, Chief Investment Officer at Moneyfarm, noted in a report that market sentiment has significantly improved due to the high expectations of a Fed rate cut. Data from S&P Global Market Intelligence shows that the iTraxx Europe Crossover Index, which tracks euro high-yield CDS, fell by 5 basis points to 285 basis points. Meanwhile, the iTraxx Europe Main Index, which tracks euro investment-grade CDS, decreased by 1 basis point to 53 basis points.

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  • September 17, 2024

UK Finance Explores Blockchain-Based Ledger For Payments And Settlements

According to Cointelegraph, a blockchain-based ledger for payments and settlements could significantly benefit the United Kingdom’s finance industry, which processes $14.5 trillion worth of payments annually, as stated by the country’s finance trade body, UK Finance.On September 17, UK Finance shared insights following the conclusion of a successful experimental phase of the Regulated Liability Network (RLN), a blockchain-based ledger designed for central bank digital currencies (CBDC) and tokenized assets. The RLN aims to support innovation and introduce new financial functions such as programmable payments. The experimentation phase involved collaboration with 11 banks.UK Finance emphasized the need for further engagement with regulators and other public bodies to develop the RLN, highlighting its potential to reduce fraud and lower the cost of failed payments. The organization noted that the UK’s legal and regulatory framework is sufficiently flexible to support this innovative platform but requires further implementation and regulatory engagement.Jana Mackintosh, UK Finance’s managing director of payments, stated that the private sector is eager to invest in the future of commercial bank money and that a partnership with regulators is crucial for success. The RLN utilizes distributed ledger technology (DLT) and is primarily intended for use by commercial banks to manage the $14.52 trillion (11 trillion British pounds) worth of payments processed annually in the UK.The ledger can accommodate wholesale CBDCs, commercial bank money, and electronic money, allowing entities with access to record, transfer, and settle funds. It also enables the tokenization and programming of payments and settlements, as well as the locking and unlocking of funds.One of the key findings from the experiments was that the RLN could provide new firms with a common point of access, enabling them to interface with established institutions and enhanced payment and settlement systems. UK Finance also claimed that the platform could help achieve objectives set out by a July Bank of England discussion paper, which include maintaining the singleness of money and promoting sustained innovation.The trade group initiated the experiments in April, collaborating with banks such as Barclays, Citi, HSBC, Lloyds, Mastercard, NatWest, Nationwide, Santander, Standard Chartered, Virgin Money, and Visa.

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