EUR/USD Prices and Analysis

• EU inflation moves lower but misses forecasts.
• EUR/USD testing the 1.0800 level again.

Euro Area core inflation fell for the 7th straight month, data from Eurostat showed earlier, but missed expectations of a larger fall. EU core inflation is now at the lowest level in two years.

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Today’s release did little to shift interest rate expectations. Markets continue to forecast around 90 basis points of cuts this year – three or four 25bp cuts – with the June 6th meeting seen as the most likely starting point. A cut at this meeting would mean the ECB being the first major central bank to cut rates, leaving the Euro at risk of falling further.

The daily EUR/ USD chart shows the pair testing 1.0800 again, with the pair flashing a short-term negative signal as it opens and trades back below the 200-day simple moving average. A break below 1.0800 leaves prior support around 1.0787 vulnerable, along with the last simple moving average at 1.0788. Below here the February 14th multi-month low print at 1.0695 the next target. If the pair can reclaim the 200-dsma at 1.0828, then the 1.0866/1.0870 area comes back into play.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart

Retail trader data shows 54.99% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.22 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 10.29% higher than yesterday and 7.10% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.68% lower than yesterday and 6.70% lower than last week.